Tag Archives: Ersan Ilyasova

Busy weekend for Bucks GM Jon Horst: Brandon Jennings signed, Mirza Teletovic waived . . . Mirza’s guaranteed $10.5 million and that business about a medical waiver

Brandon Jennings made his 2018 debut with the Bucks in Memphis Monday night and was so energized he hauled in 8 rebounds and nearly pulled off a triple double (he had 13 pts and 12 asts to go with the boards). It was enough to raise the question of why Jennings — whom the Bucks signed to a 10-day contract March 11 — wasn’t signed earlier, or at least on March 1 when the Bucks instead picked up T-Wolves forward Shabazz Muhammad off the waiver wire.

The Bucks have been playing without injured Bucks point guards Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova since Feb. 4 when Delly wrecked his ankle in Brooklyn, with no guarantee either player will be able to get back into game shape for the playoffs. After beating up on a string of lottery bound teams before the All-Star break, the Bucks lost 7 out of 10 games between Feb. 15 and March 9 vs. the Knicks (the last game before the roster moves over the weekend). Jennings, a veteran point guard fresh off a season in the Chinese Basketball League, with an excess reserve of energy in his tank, might’ve helped. No – there’s no doubt Jennings would have helped. Eric Bledsoe was the last point guard standing on the roster, and the Bucks tried to use two-way player Xavier Munford and even gunner Sean Kilpatrick at point.

It seems unlikely that anything Shabazz Muhammad does for the Bucks will effect the rest of their season. Zimbio photo. License: Standard non-commercial use.

By waiting until this week the Bucks not only kept losing, but had no more disposable contracts/players to clear out a roster spot for Jennings. The one they had, Sean Kilpatrick, was waived to bring in Muhammad. So they opted to cut a player whose $10.5 million contract is anything but disposable.

The victim was Mirza Teletovic, still recovering from pulmonary embolism (blood clotting) in both of his lungs, which developed after Teletovic underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Nov. 21. The Bucks reported Mirza’s condition Dec. 14, saying “updates on his condition will be provided when appropriate.”

Three months went by and no updates were forthcoming until last Saturday when Bucks requested waivers on Teletovic. “The Bucks and Mirza Teletovic, in consultation with team doctors and other physicians, have been working together since December to evaluate and manage Mirza’s situation,” said Bucks GM Jon Horst in a press release. “As a result of the overall evaluation that we’ve gone through, at this time we are both moving on.”

Apparently that’s the update. And apparently the Bucks and Mirza were not “working together” very well. Teletovic had been silent since the injury and hadn’t posted a tweet to his twitter account since September — until the afternoon of Feb. 28, when he denied statements by Racine Journal Times’ Gery Woelfel, who had said on 105.7 The Fan radio that his sources told him “Mirza Teletovic’s career is over.”

Mirza Teletovic, warming up before a game earlier this season. NBA photo. License: Standard non-commercial use.

Of course it was Woelfel, of course his source (s) weren’t named, and of course it wasn’t true. Later that afternoon, Teletovic denied it, tweeting that “it’s not over until I say it’s over recovery is going great”, punctuated by three smileys, all of them winking an eye. When asked specifically (on twitter) whether the report about his career being over was true, he said “No it is not, my friend.”

Ten days later and here we are, Teletovic waived, Muhammad signed for the rest of the season, and Jennings back to work in Milwaukee on a 10-day contract. Nobody lied, not Horst, not Woelfel, not Teletovic — it was just bullshit, to paraphrase Blues Brother Elwood J. Blues, just winking, smiley bullshit. Mirza and the Bucks were clearly not on the same page about his rehab or future plans — Mirza wants to play, wink wink; the Bucks hope he can’t play and that the NBA grants them a “Disabled Player” waiver next season. The Bucks will still have to pay Teletovic his guaranteed 2018-19 salary of $10.5 million, but with a medical waiver it won’t count as part of the Bucks “Team Salary” calculation.

Part of the medical waiver process is to waive the injured player, according to the NBA Collective Bargaining agreement (Article VII, Section 4 (h) on “Long Term Injuries”). The Bucks did that March 10. The next step is to apply for the waiver and then wait until Nov. 7, the one year anniversary of the last day Mirza played for the Bucks. The NBA process is to leave the determination to a doctor the NBA and the Players’ Union agree upon (which seems unlikely given the Bucks and Mirza’s disagreement about his ability to play) or go to a panel of three physicians, one for the player (union), one for the NBA and a 3rd doctor the other two agree upon (Article XXII, Sec. 11, CBA). The panel then decides whether Mirza’s career is over, and if the determination goes against him, he can appeal after nine months if his condition changes.

If he is cleared to play, his $10.5 million contract goes on the Team Salary ledger and the Bucks will pay luxury tax to have a roster, one way or another. The question is how much. Frank Madden, founder of Brewhoop, posted the following chart on twitter after the Bucks waived Mirza.

The $20.3 million assigned to Jabari Parker is not what he’ll be paid next season (that amount is unknown) but is the restricted free agent (RFA) cap hold Parker represents, which puts the Bucks $7.6 million under the luxury tax for 11 players (they’re required to have 14 but CBA rules encourage teams to maintain a full 15-man roster). Mirza’s $10.5 m + the low estimate for Parker puts the Bucks in the luxury tax zone, where, as a first time offender, they would pay $1 to the NBA for every $1 they’re over the luxury threshold. Without the waiver, the Bucks would pay a total of about $140 million or more for a roster that has yet to win a playoff series (barring any possible trades to improve the situation).

With the waiver, the Bucks could comfortably sign Parker, keep Tyler Zeller (not guaranteed for next season) and maintain a 15-man roster under the luxury tax threshold. They’ll still pay Teletovic $10.5 — which will put their total costs for next year over $130 million, one way or another — but it wouldn’t cost them an additional $7-8 million in taxes. Mirza’s desire to play, and the real possibility that he and the Players’ Union will challenge the Bucks medical waiver request, could become a double-whammy for the Bucks.

The irony here is that Mirza was signed as a result of the Bucks projecting a player-friendly pose in their personnel decisions. Mirza’s value is in the role of stretch-4 forward capable of going on devastating 3-point hot streaks off the bench. That job was filled in Milwaukee until 2015 by veteran Ersan Ilyasova (who often started) but the Bucks also had Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker (coming back from his first knee surgery) at power forward — there wasn’t much playing time in Milwaukee for Ersan, not the 27 mpg he was used to getting. So the Bucks traded Ilyasova to Detroit for basically nothing (soon-to-retire Caron Butler and forward Shawne Williams), the idea being that Ilyasova would start at power forward for the Pistons, which he did.

After the Bucks floundered to a 33-win season, it was decided by coach Jason Kidd and GM John Hammond that they needed more 3-point shooting, and that while they had done the right thing finding Ersan a new home, it was time to fill the stretch-4 void the trade had created. Mirza Teletovic had played for Kidd in Brooklyn, coming off the bench to gun threes behind Paul Pierce. He had put up some good shooting numbers in Phoenix in 2016, and he was a client of Jeff Schwartz, who, as it happens, also represents Kidd on the speaking engagement circuit.

Mirza played for Jason Kidd in 2013-14, the season prior to Kidd taking the job as Bucks coach. Getty Images 2015. License: Standard non-commercial use.

Mirza signed a 3-year-$31.5 million contract, a bigger haul than the 2yrs-$16.3 million Ersan had left on his contract when the Bucks traded him, but that was water under the bridge, and well, the new TV deal was expected to create a lot of salary cap space to operate under, no reason to sweat the details. Unfortunately, when Mirza arrived, it was quickly discovered that all he could do was shoot threes, and was a liability in other facets of the game. He had, in fact, been Jon Leuer‘s backup in Phoenix after the Suns benched Markieff Morris, and then saw his playing time pick up when Leuer succumbed to nagging injuries. Kidd and Hammond had handed Jon Leuer’s backup $10.5 million a year.

Teletovic had his moments that first season with the Bucks — Nov. 5 against the Kings in Milwaukee, where he shot 7 for 9 from three and poured in 22 points in 20 minutes in a Bucks blowout win; a game in Washington Dec. 10, where Mirza’s shooting (25 pts, 5 of 6 from three) had helped stake the Bucks to a 6-point lead in the 4th, only to see the Wizards dominate the Bucks starters in the final minutes. He scored 19 pts in 16 mins in Indiana Feb. 11 as the Bucks began to pull together after Jabari Parker was lost for the season. But those games were few and far between. After the win vs. the Pacers, Teletovic would score only 8 points over the next 8 games, going scoreless in four of those. He played just 26 mins in the 6-game playoff series against Toronto. No power forward in the NBA had played as much in the regular season and put up worse all around numbers — his 2016-17 BIER was -0.57, far below the median for NBA forwards.

The Bucks hardly noticed Teletovic’s struggles as they won 20 of their last 30, in large part because they had found another forward in the summer of 2016 — Michael Beasley, whose career had languished in Houston; and the Rockets were happy to let him go to the Bucks for the price of little-used Tyler Ennis. Beasley was instant offense off the Bucks bench last season, shooting 53% from the field and 42% from three, posting  a BIER of 7.97, 12th best among NBA small forwards.

Schwartz had taken Kidd and Hammond to the cleaners on the Teletovic deal, that much was clear, and the ramifications hit home in year 2 of his contract. With $10.5 million invested in Mirza, the Bucks had no money to sign Beasley, who went to the Knicks for $2.1 million this season, leaving Mirza as the only non-rookie forward on the Bucks bench while Parker rehabbed his knee.  Mirza just had to be better in his 2nd Bucks season, and to that effect had laser surgery in the offseason to correct his vision — and he actually was better, making 21 of 45 threes (47%) in those first 10 games. But he is 32 years old, and it was too little, little too late to salvage his career. The hindsight realizations about what a bad deal the Teletovic contract was came crashing down when the cartilage in his left knee went bad  and it was announced he would undergo more surgery and miss at least four weeks.

Mirza’s NBA career was all but over after last season — and should have been — yet neither he nor the Bucks were in a position to admit it, not with two years and $21 million in guaranteed money still left to be paid.  

Post-surgery pulmonary embolism is not uncommon, according to the Mayo Clinic, and can be life threatening if not diagnosed. Mirza’s was diagnosed. Embolism occurs when a body is immobile, seated for long hours of travel or bed-ridden after surgery, as blood clots form in the main artery running from the legs to the heart, and move to the heart/lungs.  Blood thinners and rest are the common treatment, according to the Mayo Clinic guide, and the clots usually break up and go away. Mirza says he’s coming along just fine, and hopefully he is.

None of which may have anything to do with whether or not Mirza can play next season. In letting him go, the Bucks relieved him of a job he was only able to perform every so often in Milwaukee when healthy. Now that the Bucks job is gone, is there another NBA job out there for him? Mirza will be 33 years old when doctors decide in November whether his injury and illness were career ending.

It may not matter. The Bucks will probably get their medical waiver (teams are usually granted such exceptions), and they will have dodged another Team Salary bullet. Mirza will collect his guaranteed $10.5 million and try to play again at some point, somewhere. Whatever happens in November, nothing Jon Horst did last weekend is helping the Bucks tonight against the lowly Magic in Orlando.


  • Bucks news, official press releases – http://www.nba.com/bucks/news/
  • Mayo clinic on pulmonary embolism – https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pulmonary-embolism/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20354653
  • NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) – https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2017/10/2017-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement.pdf

Young Buck returns to Wisconsin older, wiser, healthier . . . “a world hooper”

Jennings was often a human highlight film off the bench in NY last season, and led the Knicks in assists per game, dishing out 4.9 per game in 24.6 minutes. Jennings played 58 games with NY and 36 for the Washington Wizards, including 13 playoff games. NY Times photo found at Baller brand website. License: Standard noncommercial use.

GM Jon Horst had been tracking the global basketball economy for weeks, and was ready to make his move when China’s CBA wrapped its season up on Monday. It’s just that nobody expected the Bucks Chinese import to be Brandon Jennings, the young Buck of the 2010 “Fear the Deer” season.

Mass confusion erupted Tuesday at General Mitchell Airport as Brandon Jennings strolled through the Far East gate, looking nothing at all like a 7-foot behemoth to fill the Bucks biggest need for the stretch run and playoffs. The ensuing near riot was a happy event, according to baggage handlers who witnessed it, as nine out of 10 Bucks fans agreed that having Jennings back in Wisconsin was a good thing, a very good thing indeed. He’s not a Buck yet, having signed with the Wisconsin Herd, the Bucks G-League affiliate in Oshkosh, but there’s at least some expectation he may soon be if all goes well in Oshkosh.

Jennings, went to China this season to clear his head, to hit the reset button at age 28 after bouncing around from Orlando to New York and Washington while trying to fully recover from a gruesome torn Achilles injury that derailed him in Detroit three years ago. It was a decision made quickly last summer after a disappointing playoffs with the Wizards, where his playing time dwindled and he averaged but 1 point and 1 assist per game in the 7-game series against Boston.

“I just packed my bags and I was gone,” he told USA Today upon returning to the U.S. earlier this month.  Jennings’ Shanxi Brave Dragons didn’t make the Chinese Basketball Association playoffs, despite his 27.9 pts and 6.8 assists per game, but the experience helped him “grow up and mature and realize what was important in life,” he said. The interviewer didn’t ask what, specifically, was important because a discussion about the wonders of Chinese cuisine (Jennings’ favorite) ensued. Jennings said he was fully recovered from the injury and “back to the person that I was before I got hurt, the person that I was in Detroit.”

That person in Detroit was a very good NBA point guard, on the edge of being an All-star. The Pistons got off to a miserable 5-and-23 start to the 2014-15 season, losing 13 in a row at one point, until they waived madly individualistic power forward, Josh Smith. They gelled almost immediately after Smith exited, winning 12 out of the next 15 games. Jennings was brilliant during the Detroit winning streak, scoring 20 pts per game, dishing out 7.2 assists and shooting 40% from three. But Detroit’s winning ways and Jennings’ 2015 season ended abruptly in Milwaukee Jan. 24, when his Achilles tendon snapped as he tried to recover a steal by Brandon Knight under the Detroit basket.

Brandon Jennings, 15 games 12/26/14 to 01/21/15

He made it back in 2016, but his starting point guard job had been handed over to Reggie Jackson, who had enjoyed a good run in Jennings’ absence. The Pistons traded him in February of 2016 to Orlando in a swap of ex-Bucks — Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova for Tobias Harris. The move reunited Jennings and Ilyasova with Magic coach Scott Skiles, their coach for 3-and-a-half years in Milwaukee.

The reunion with Skiles was short-lived, however, thanks to the ill-fated player personnel schemes of Orlando GM Rob Hennigan, who had no plans to resign Jennings or exercise the team option on Ilyasova’s 2016-17 guarantee. A few weeks after the 2016 ended, Skiles abruptly quit the coaching job. A month later, Hennigan traded Ilyasova, Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis to the OKC Thunder for Serge Ibaka, a dumbfounding move that left little doubt about why Skiles decided to walk. Ilyasova was left in contract limbo and, while sorting it out, missed the Turkish national team’s Olympic qualifying tournament.  Jennings, meanwhile, signed a one-year, $4.83 million deal with the Knicks. The Magic, after a 29-win season in 2017, sacked Hennigan in April (and, weirdly enough, replaced him with John Hammond and Jeff Weltman, the guys who drafted Jennings for the Bucks in 2009).

Had Hennigan been competent and the Magic better employers, Jennings and Skiles would likely be in Orlando still, building on what they had begun in Milwaukee. Ilyasova, Oladipo and Sabonis? Who knows — but the success Oladipo and Sabonis are having this season with the Pacers suggests that Skiles would likely have made things work in Orlando.

Jennings went on to New York, where he played back-up to Derrick Rose at point, bringing speed and highlight film passing off the bench, even if his shot hadn’t quite returned to pre-injury form. Jennings easily led the team with 7.2 assists per 36, but the Knicks dropped out of the playoff hunt and bought Jennings’ contract out in late February, just in time for him to join the Wizards and back Wall up in the playoffs. His playing time steadily declined as the playoffs wore on. When the Wizards lost game 7 in Boston, they did so largely without Jennings, who played all of 5:40 in the game and didn’t attempt a shot.

Bucks social media photo and artwork, Bucks.com.

“I went to China for myself – it was a personal decision,” Jenning explained to Jim Paschke, television voice of the Bucks, in an interview this week. (Watch full interview HERE.) “I just wanted to get away for a minute to focus and get my rhythm back to playing basketball.”

Just as his decision to sign with Shanxi was made quickly, all it took was a phone call from Wisconsin Herd GM Dave Dean to bring him back to Wisconsin. Dean asked if he wanted to come play, Jennings said “of course” and packed his bags again and flew to Milwaukee. His return may not even be part of any plan by the Bucks, and more the natural course of Brandon Jennings being Brandon Jennings, “world hooper”

Jennings can help the Bucks

Ever since Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas destroyed the Bucks in Milwaukee Jan. 5,  scoring 20 points in one quarter against helpless Bucks centers John Henson and Thon Maker, the Bucks have been on the lookout for a defensive minded big man. They picked up Tyler Zeller from Brooklyn during Trade Deadline week, but Zeller’s more power forward than intimidating force in the paint. He wasn’t the solution to the big man problem, not with the likes of Andrew Bogut and Miroslav Raduljica and other free agent bigs out there.

But then the Bucks point guards broke. Malcolm Brogdon‘s left quad tendon tore apart (partially) in Minneapolis, sidelining him for 6 to 8 weeks. And a couple of days later, his backup, Matthew Dellavedova, sprained an ankle against the Nets in Brooklyn and won’t be back until after the All-Star break. The Bucks at point are down to Eric Bledsoe, whose chaotic dynamism is more suited to freelancing on the break or from the wings than running a half-court offense. There’s no guarantee Brogdon will make it back to playoff shape this season, no guarantee Dellavedova will step up, and suddenly the Bucks are very thin at point, a precarious position to be in this late in the season.

Jennings can help. He’s quicker than Brogdon or Delly and has a higher career assist rate — in his brief time with the Wizards, his regular season assist rate was a career high 10.4 per 36 minutes. His steals rate is also the highest of the Wizards three point guards, and he tends to get to the line more. Plus he has 50% more NBA experience than Delly or Brogdon combined.

What he is not is a reliable shooter, but then neither is Delly. Jennings’ three-point shooting tends to come and go in streaks, where he’s either putting on a show or getting frustrated by the misses. In Detroit, he shot progressively less and passed more as the team chemistry came together. The season of his injury, 2014-15, he was down to 13.2 shots per game, while scoring at the same 15 ppg rate. He averaged 15 pts and 7 assists per game through 121 games with the Pistons — before the Achilles injury. If he truly is back to the player he was then, he could help a number of teams. At age 28, he’s still in his basketball prime.

And who can forget the 55-point game in Jennings’ “Fear the Deer” rookie season?

Welcome back to Wisconsin, Brandon Jennings.

NBA Trade Deadline: Another aimless trade blog to kill some time while waiting for something interesting to happen

The day’s last tweets from Adrian Wojnarowski went out just before 2 AM, 13 hours before today’s 3pm EST deadline. He sounded oh so bored and tired of this year’s edition of “NBA Trade Deadline”.

All’s (not quite) quiet on the DeAndre Jordan trade front, and it’s probably a good thing.

(Edit: Six hours later, Woj took it back of course, the Cavs-Clipper talks r.e. DeAndre Jordan being the big story churning today over at ESPN, employer of Woj).

Interest in Clippers center DeAndre Jordan has dropped off with word that Jordan isn’t willing to opt in for next season as part of any deal. Cleveland won’t give up its Brooklyn pick in a deal for Jordan or any other player. Stalemate. Lou Williams just signed a contract to stay with the Clippers, so Williams-related rumors are dead. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond have won five straight in Detroit.

There have been all of four trades made this year and the trade deadline is just hours away. If I were you, I would just stop reading this and find something more interesting to do until NBA Trading Deadline 2018 has passed us all by.

Cleveland just blew up its roster — first a trade with the Lakers, then a 3-team deal with the Kings and Jazz; and the Cavs sent Dwyane Wade back to Miami for a draft pick so he could finish his career with the Heat. — 11:44 AM (something did finally happen)

So far no teams have been willing to give up a first round draft pick to help move their contract mistakes (this applies to the Bucks and their group of $10 million a year investments).  Over at ESPN, Zach Lowe has figured out that it makes a lot more sense to do a sign and trade deal for Jordan after the season ends than to trade for him now. The Bucks were mentioned once in the ESPN article, something about “poking around” r.e. DeAndre Jordan, nothing more.

I looked up my old “survival guide” to the NBA trading deadline (from last year) and made sure I wasn’t breaking any rules and realized I’m probably taking this year’s episode too seriously. 

I ran through all the deals John Hammond made while he was in the Bucks front office, 2008-2007, and found nothing involving Miami. In fact, I can’t remember any trade between the Bucks and the Heat, ever. Apparently Miami GM Pat Riley doesn’t do business with the Bucks, and Riley’s been in Miami a long, long time. The only thing I can recall is Riley jacking up the Bucks signing price of Charlie Bell back in 2007 by proffering an offer sheet to Bell. Remembering that took a lot out of me.

If the Heat were ever serious about trading Hassan Whiteside, which they aren’t, winning 9 out of 11 games Dec. 30 – Jan. 20 changed their minds. Since then, the Heat have lost 7 out 9, and they’re still not serious about trading Whiteside. But just for argument’s sake in the universe of made up trade possibilities, Riley probably wouldn’t take Bucks GM Jon Horst’s calls.

Horst might want to call his old boss Hammond over in Orlando. Hammond is sure to take the call, and nearly the entire Magic roster is on the trading block, including Jonathon Simmons, who made his mark with the Spurs last season during the playoffs. Simmons is known for toughness and defense on the perimeter, but he can score it too, pouring in 34 pts in the Magic win vs. the Cavs on Tuesday. The Bucks could use all they help they can get at guard with Malcolm Brogdon out of action for another six or seven weeks.

Jonathon Simmons flushed the Cavs Tuesday night, scoring 34 pts on 12 of 17 shooting in the Magic’s 116-98 win. Orlando GM John Hammond was entertaining offers on Simmons and most of the Magic roster this week. Photo license: Standard non-commercial use.

There are many shooting/combo guards for sale (Rodney Hood, Simmons, Avery Bradley, Kemba WalkerMarcus Smart) but teams aren’t jumping at the opportunity to spend a first round pick on one, not even for Tyreke Evans, who finally got back to his 2010 rookie-of-the-year form in Memphis this season, averaging 19.5 pts, 5 rebs, 5 assists. Evans will be traded somewhere, the consensus says, and seven teams are in the mix, including Boston and Philly. I don’t know why the Celtics would give up battle-tested Smart in an attempt to acquire Evans, who has little playoff experience — but it’s the NBA trading deadline — nothing has to make sense and it gives NBA media a chance to talk about the Celtics, which NBA media likes to do.

Philly is in “buy” mode — the Sixers want to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, Detroit has won five straight since trading their shooting guard, Avery Bradley, for power forward Blake Griffin, and will have something to say about the Sixers chances of making the playoffs. The pairing of Griffin and All-Star center Andre Drummond (and giving up Bradley and Tobias Harris to do it) was considered by many a bold but futile move in today’s 3-happy NBA, but Griffin’s ability to push the offense into the paint, where Drummond can clean up, is proving pretty effective.

Drummond’s been on a roll since the Pistons acquired Griffin and it’s pushed his impact numbers past Anthony Davis‘ and Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s and into the NBA lead, with a BIER rating of 17.36. Score one for big-man-centric basketball in Detroit. … So far. Griffin has a habit of not staying healthy.

There were no trades on Tuesday and only one yesterday: The Knicks traded Willy Hernangomez to Charlotte. Hernangomez had asked to be traded because he wasn’t getting any minutes in NY, and it looks like that request came more recently than this week, according to ESPN. Did the Bucks make an offer for Hernangomez before trading for Zeller? Were the Bucks even aware the young center had requested a trade, or was it too late?

Hernangomez, from Spain, was an All-Rookie selection last season and is a quick, athletic 23-year-old center who’s kind of like Zeller with bounce – a lot more bounce. He’s ideal in many ways for today’s game. Charlotte acquired him for forward Johnny O’Bryant and 2020 and 2021 second round draft picks. The Bucks might have offered Rashad Vaughn and the rest of the protections on the 2018 2nd round pick, same deal they made with Brooklyn – but Charlotte picks are better picks than Milwaukee picks these days.

Thon Maker for Hernangomez? Would the Knicks have gone for that? The Bucks aren’t there yet. Probably not even close.

And none of this ever happened.

Tyler Zeller really is all there is.

I almost forgot: Ersan Ilyasova, the most tradeable man in the NBA, is once again on the trading block, and it’s still funny. He’s having a decent year in Atlanta despite the Hawks’ losing ways — his 56.5% True Shooting % is the 2nd best of his career (his career best was 57.7% with the Bucks in 2012) and he’s averaging 7.7 rebs per 36 mins. Overall, his Impact and Efficiency (BIER) rating is 7.16, higher than a few players named All-Stars and a few more being talking about as the replacement for injured Kristaps Porzingis. He has played 26 mins per game in Atlanta.

Ersan’s playing on a one-year $6 million contract. The Hawks have shopped Ilyasova and another shooting guard for the field, Marco Belinelli.


NBA Trade Deadline: A survival guide

It’s that time of year when nothing is true and everything is permitted in the NBA rumor mill. Fake news abounds, the rumors mostly click bait, yet somehow, someway, the craziest out-of-nowhere trades happen. Who saw either Plumlee trade (Miles to Charlotte and Mason to Denver) happening?

Who saw DeMarcus Cousins and Omri Casspi (an underrated forward) headed for New Orleans for a 6’4″ rookie shooting guard (Buddy Hield), another shooting guard who won the Rookie of the Year with the Kings (Tyreke Evans) but doesn’t play much these days, a backup point guard who bombed out with the Knicks last year (Langston Galloway), and a first and second round draft pick.

Even Rolling Stone hates this deal for the Kings. Since when does Rolling Stone write about sports? And what does this have to do with the Bucks, or surviving the phantasmagoria of internet non-reality at the #NBATradeDeadline ???

Everything and nothing. Let’s get started, then.

Rule No. 1: Trust no one, but especially not the Bucks reporter in Racine. Gery Woelfel long ago got into the habit of citing unnamed sources for trades that he truly believed in but never happened. Woelfel’s “news” is mostly click-bait for the Journal Times and gets ignored around Milwaukee, but is picked up by Hoopshype, Hoops Habit, Hoops Rumors and other NBA nooks online, who then serve it up to people who follow those nooks, people you may know, and pretty soon you’re talking about the very Woelfel rumor you ignored the day before.

Woelfel’s trying to trade Matthew Dellavedova and Roy Hibbert for Ricky Rubio and a walleye sandwich right now. Past attempts to get Rubio ended when the T-Wolves demanded that Khris Middleton be included in the deal. Everybody loves Khris, but so do the Bucks.

Rubio doesn’t know about Woelfel, apparently, and sounds a little like he might be traded. Yesterday he tweeted: “Never stress over what you can’t control.” @rickyrubio9 on twitter.

Rule No. 1a: Revisit that twitter account you rarely use.

Rule No. 2: Trust no one, but check out The Vertical with Woj. I became a fan of Adrian Wojnarowski’s feature writing for yahoo a few years ago, and he and his gang of Vertical writers are a heads up crew around trade deadline. They’re saying most teams aren’t looking to do anything major right now, there’s “no traction” to much of the talk, and swaps involving big money centers are the most unlikely of things (killing the Monroe rumors they helped fuel last year). The Cousins trade really did come out of nowhere.

Rule No.  3: The most trade-able player in the NBA is Ersan Ilyasova, and it’s getting pretty funny (that’s him in the photo above, don’t send him money!). Ersan and his highly trade-able, expiring $8.4 million contract were shipped to the Hawks last night, his 5th trade since playing for the Bucks in 2015. This is good for Ersan, as he’ll get a chance to play in the playoffs on a team with Dwight Howard, who’s back near the top of the NBA center rankings (No. 2 behind Denver’s Jokic). The Hawks have the fifth seed in the East and would play Toronto if the playoffs started today.

Rule No. 4: Don’t click on anything that has a question mark in the header or offers a list of things, unless it’s a really funny list. People that sit up all night trolling for trade rumors are very tired people who are not usually funny. People who put questions marks in headlines (ESPN does this a lot) don’t usually have any news.

Rule No. 5: If you think your team has bad contracts, chances are the other teams also recognize those contracts to be bad and don’t want them either. The Bucks overpaid Dellavedova, John Henson, Mirza Teletovic and Miles Plumlee and were lucky to dump Plumlee on the Hornets. The remaining three are not “helpers” in the sense that a playoff contender might really want any of them and they are all heavy – $83 million left to be paid AFTER this season. Henson and Delly contracts go through 2020. The Mirza deal is for two more years after this one. Lebron wants Delly back in Cleveland, but the Bucks made it nearly (edit: the CBA says no, Cavs can’t do it) impossible for the Cavs to do anything about it, given how much the luxury tax they’re already paying.

Let’s review those salaries:

Delly – 3 more years, $28.8 million.

Henson – 3 more years, $32.5 million

Mirza – 2 more years, $21 million, the most trade-able contract, the least impactful player this season.

Rule No. 6: Think of all the reasons a team won’t do the trade, and keep in mind that those reasons are probably more important than your team’s reasons for wanting to do the trade.

Rule No. 7: You need movable pieces to make a trade. The Bucks have a couple of those, most notably expiring Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes, who has a player option for $6 million this summer. They offer salary relief, cap space, and, like Ilyasova, are highly trade-able. Unfortunately, you need the cap space too, and to make the trade happen, you probably have to take on a contract for next season that will eat up just as much if not more of your cap space than the contract you’re trading.

Rule No. 8:  A case of Pabst Blue Ribbon sweetens any deal. In the past, we’ve used Milwaukee’s cheap-o hipster beer to improve fantastic Michael Redd trades, a deadline trade for Josh Smith‘s favorite headband, and one involving this great looking parka that Wally Szczerbiak had, which was a much better deal than Raef Lafrentz’s “Curious George” hat, which was also pretty cool.  I’m not exactly sure whether that last one happened or not.

Rule No. 9: Stay off of the Sports Illustrated fan sites. The Bucks site is Behind the Buck Pass (don’t click on that link, unless you really want to run all those ads!). which started out Trade Deadline Day working up a deal for Kings backup point guard Darren Collison. This fire was quickly doused by Brewhoop, which had found a tweet from Bucks beat reporter Charles Gardner of the Journal Sentinel that said the Bucks haven’t talked to the Kings as the deadline approaches.

Rule No.10: Trust no one, but know that Magic Johnson is now the Lakers GM, and is able to make trades with Larry Bird, the GM in Indiana. They talked about Paul George this week, but, hey, nothing happened. Bird’s probably figured out that Paul George isn’t the impact player people thought he was, but also figures most of the league hasn’t figured this out yet. The deadline has passed, and Danny Ainge still hasn’t made a trade for Boston despite a cacophony of chatter about what Danny Ainge and the Celtics want.

Rule No. 11: Just start a list like this one, make up some trades of your own, and suddenly the deadline has passed and we can get back to basketball.

Rule No. 12: Don’t trust your own list, but here’s one to check out. SB Nation’s “Every Trade” list. Oh, look, Andrew Bogut‘s a Sixer for a couple of months, and Taj Gibson‘s out of the Central Division (to OKC).

But hold on, the Sixers will likely buy Bogut out, freeing him up to be signed as playoff help, San Jose Mercury News is reporting (alert: real  newspaper!). The Warriors can’t resign their championship center until after the new NBA fiscal year starts, July 1, but the Cavs are reportedly interested in Bogut. The Celtics couldn’t make a move at the deadline, so they’ll be interested.

And if the Raptors (acquired P.J. Tucker from the Suns, Serge Ibaka from Orlando), the Wizards (acquired Bojan Bogdanovic from the Nets, not to be confused with Serbian Bogdan Bogdanovic) and the Hawks (Ilyasova from the Sixers) are gearing up for the playoff dogfight in the East by adding solid veterans, real basketball players all, why can’t the Pacers and the Bucks? Bogut would be everything coach Kidd has wanted in a tough, intimidating defensive center to start games. There’s no harm done in trying to compete, nor in having a little fun while your doing it. The Bucks have been in the NBA’s bottom 5 in defensive rebounding % ever since Bogut was traded to the Warriors in 2012.

Tyler Ennis has been traded again, this time from Houston to the Lakers, who will trying to lose lose lose to protect their top 3 draft pick. Ennis reminds us that NBA Trade Deadline is often about players like Tyler Ennis.

Meanwhile, the Bucks handed Roy Hibbert’s expiring contract Denver for a super protected 2nd round pick in 2019 that the Bucks won’t get unless the Nuggets are one of the top 5 teams in the league. But at least the Bucks have an open roster spot to sign a player (Bogut!), and as of right now they are $453,951 under the salary cap.

Why +/- can’t be trusted for basketball analysis

When Ersan Ilyasova entered Sunday night’s game in Detroit, the Bucks were down 2-0 and Luc Mbah a Moute was headed for the locker room for some stitch work.  (See play-by-play log at NBA.com).

When Ilyasova left the game ten minutes later after picking up his second foul, the Bucks were down 29-21.   That’s a -6 in the world of box score +/- calculation. Pretty simply, right?

The Bucks were down 12 (70-58) when Ilyasova entered the game for Moute in the 3rd quarter and began a 13-6 run to end the quarter, whittling the Pistons lead down to eight (86-78) with 8:28 to go in the game.  That’s a +4 for Ilyasova in that stretch.

Negative 6 and +4 = -2 for Ersan (he had 17 pts at this point).  Yet when I looked at the boxscore online, the Yahoo-NBA boxscore from the Associated Press had Ilyasova at a whopping MINUS 21!

Even if you were just following along with the play-by-play online, you’d know that the +/- numbers for this game were off.   When Ilyasova’s was “corrected” with just under eight minutes left in the game, the box had Ersan at minus 3.  Better, but still wrong.

Then — somehow — as the Bucks fell down by 10 points, Ersan’s +/- actually improved to -1.

A few minutes later, the Bucks cut the lead to 3 (92-89) with Ersan still on the floor and his +/- had miraculously plunged again to -10.  What’s going on here?

All statisticians agree that Ilyasova had 21 points at that point.

The official NBA box, by the way, was even further off.  With the score tied at 94, they had Ilyasova at minus 17.   The correct number was +6.

We may be getting some idea how Ekpe Udoh was among the league leaders in adjusted +/- for Golden State last season.   (There was even some speculation that the trade of Andrew Bogut for Monte Ellis and Ekpe Udoh was inspired by young Udoh’s seemingly awesome +/- and his potential to do even greater things as he matured.  In fact, Bucks GM John Hammond even said words to this effect. Brewhoop addressed the phenomena in October 2012, almost three years ago as of this revision. The explanation for Udoh’s freakishly good +/- turned out to be that in Golden State he played a significant portion of his minutes with Steph Curry, and that those minutes added up to a small sample size.  Here, I’m obviously annoyed that the +/- numbers aren’t even correct some of the time). 

The final tape of our Bucks-Detroit game, despite a good game from Ersan, read Detroit 96, Bucks 94 as  Monta Ellis missing a jumper and a runner in the final 32 seconds.

Ilyasova finished with 24 points, 17 of those coming as he led the Bucks back from a 12-point 3rd quarter deficit.   The official box score at last read Ilyasvoa +3.   The correct +/- number for Ersan in this game +4.

And Ekpe Udoh?  He played 11:39, did not take a shot or grab a rebound, was largely invisible yet was credited with two steals I’m not sure he actually had.   His +/- for those invisible minutes read +7.  This +7 is the number that some will use to show how important Udoh was to the Bucks in this game, citing invisible and unmeasured basketball activities like setting good screens and not getting in the way of others.

It’s nice to have teammates.

“Not finished product” and “still trying to figure it out” – The existentialist polarities of Bucks coach Scott Skiles

Sometimes Bucks fans just have to scratch their collective heads about the existentialism of Scott Skiles.  Here are the latest “still searching” musings from the man in charge of making Bucks playing time decisions:

”We’re 15-12. I don’t think we’re a finished product yet. We’re still trying to figure out some things.”  — Skiles this past Thursday in the AP story “Bucks in thick of Central race for now.”

27 games into the season and the coach is still trying to figure out some things, still trying to find his team — or find himself within the context of this Bucks team:  The Brandon Jennings-Monta Ellis show with an overstock of power forwards and centers.

In many ways comments like these are self-serving on Skiles part.  The players didn’t start the D-League-level forward tandem of Tobias Harris and rookie John Henson, three Bucks losses until the Bucks bench reversed a laugher in Chicago to bury the Bulls.   Scott Skiles filled out those Frankenstein lineups that sometimes included Ekbe Udoh, sometimes Sam Dalembert, and finally Marques Daniels in place of the very limited Harris.   Sure, the coach was searching, but for what?

The Bucks lost seven out of nine during that forgettable stretch, and there wasn’t a Bucks analyst alive who could figure out what Skiles was doing, other than scape-goating Ersan Ilyasova in full view of Bucks fandom while waiting for the return of Luc Mbah a Moute, the great defender who, more than any other player, has made sense of things for Skiles since he took the Bucks job in 2008.   Moute’s also the only player left from Skiles’ first team.

This last fact, in other ways, shows Skiles’ comments to be veiled criticism (perhaps) of the Bucks front office — which hasn’t agreed with Skiles’ conception of Moute as a starting power forward, and has larded the Bucks with the likes of Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman and Ekbe Udoh at the position, even as Ilyasova has played his way, time and again, into a prominent rotation spot as the Bucks power forward.

And this is precisely where the Bucks and Skiles have found themselves again:  starting Moute at power forward while Ilyasova plays the majority of the PF minutes off the bench and finishes games, with Moute shifting over to small forward and platooning in and out for defensive purposes.

With 2013 days away, the Bucks are the same as they ever were circa 2009-10:

Mike Dunleavy is Carlos Delfino;

Beno Udrih is Luke Ridnour;

Sanders-Udoh-Przybilla-Dalembert are a weird, four-headed version of Andrew Bogut that plays with only two heads and has watched the Bucks plunge to 26th in the NBA in defensive rebounding (coinciding with the benching of Dalembert);

Marquis Daniels is Keith Bogans, Jerry Stackhouse and Charlie Bell, and sometimes Delfino;

Monta Ellis the wild card;

And Jennings and Moute — and often Ilyasova — managing at times, when they can, to make sense of it all for Skiles and the fans, regardless of what the front office does with the players around them.

When it does, it’s not always clear Skiles knows why it works, beyond knowing that Bucks wins are usually predicated on defense and that they match up well with the Boston Celtics (a 3-wins out of four surprise for the Bucks).

When it doesn’t work, the product isn’t finished (still) and more mad tinkering may be in store from Skiles, the front office or both.

Ridiculous Stat of the Day:  There’s always something that jumps out about these Bucks when one looks at the sort-able season summary stats at basketball-reference, the ritual with which the Bob Boozer Jinx editorial board starts its day.  With the Miami Heat in Milwaukee to play our deer tonight, the board decided it was time to check the Strength of Schedule rankings.

Lo and behold, our 15-12 Bucks have played the 28th easiest schedule in the league.  With the Celtics, Pacers and Bulls (Bucks are 6-2 against their rivals) more average than good so far this season, that’s how it goes.   Playing the Heat tonight will change this stat, but the Bucks head for Detroit on Sunday, back down it’ll go, leaving the Bucks with a hard road ahead in 2013.  Ridiculous.

Ridiculous Stat of the Day II:   As mentioned above, the Bucks are currently the 5th worst in the NBA at rebounding their opponents’ misses.  Ridiculous.

Ridiculous Stat of the Day III:  The career defensive rebounding percentage of little-used Bucks center Sam Dalembert is 25.4% — 10th best in NBA history.  The Bucks with Dalembert starting at center began the season leading the league in defensive rebounding.  Do we think there’s a connection between Bucks rebounding and Dalembert’s playing time?  Absolutely.  Ridiculous.

Ridiculous Stat of the Day IV:  The Golden State Warriors are 20-wins, 10 losses and are tied for 4th in the West with Memphis.   How good will the Warriors be when Andrew Bogut is healthy enough to anchor the defense?   Ridiculous.

Scott Skiles’ starting rotation shooting the Bucks in the foot

Coming off a big overtime win in Boston and facing the 5-23 Cavaliers at the Bradley Center BMO Harris BMO Harris Bradley Center, a 15-11 record heading into the three-day X-mas break looked pretty good for the Bucks.   But not after the starters shot less than 38% and repeatedly dumped the Bucks into a 10-then-20 point hole that the bench couldn’t dig out of.

If the opening tip five against Cleveland are to be coach Scott Skiles’ starters the rest of the way, get used to nights like Saturday.   As a group they are one of the worst — if not the worst — shooting group currently starting in the NBA.

Skiles’ current starting lineup — Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, with forwards Marquis Daniels and Luc Mbah a Moute, and center Larry Sanders — would be dead last in the NBA in shooting, were the 7 wins-20 losses Charlotte Bobcats not shooting worse.  (See NBA season summary).

The Bucks starters combined are shooting an effective 45.3% on the season (587.5 out of 1297), adjusting up for three-pointers made.  (The Bucks by the way are 28th in the league from downtown, hitting just 31.9%.)

The rest of the team is misfiring too, though not so much since Ersan Ilyasova has resurrected to find his jumper.  They’re at 47.4% effectively, slightly better than the team % of the Memphis Grizzlies.  Ilyasova’s percentage has climbed out of the 25% range and is heading toward 50%.

The dud Saturday against Cleveland was actually accomplished with cold-shooting Monta Ellis on a good night, going 15 of 27 and shooting an effective 59.3% – only the second time this season Ellis has hit that mark.

Ellis shoots more than anybody in the league with the exception of Kobe Bryant and Russell Westbrook, while posting career-lows in field goal and 3-point-%.   Monta’s never been good from 3-point-land, but the 20.9% he’s shooting this season is horrific. And those latest stats include two good shooting games by Ellis against the Celtics and Cavs.

There is no “shooting guard” in the NBA playing more than 30 mins per game who shoots worse than Monta  (See HoopData sorted stats by position).

Point guard shooting percentages being what they are (generally lower), only the Knicks J.R. Smith joins Ellis as a “shooting guard” in the bottom ten.  And remember, Ellis is firing away at a rate topped only Kobe and Russell Westbrook.

But this isn’t all about Monta Ellis or Jennings.   Compounding matters is that Skiles starts Ellis with forwards Luc Mbah a Moute and Marquis Daniels, two defensive minded players not known for sticking shots.  Moute and Daniels are both below 48% career eFG%, under the league average of 48.8% this year.

Skiles has done this, he says, because he wants to start games with stronger D — defying the expectations of Bucks fans that Ilyasova and Moute would finally get a chance to start together and bring some chemistry to Skiles’ ever-changing rotations — and  it’s not as though Ilyasova’s a slouch on defense.

One could argue — I suppose — that with good-shooting Beno Udrih still out with a right ankle injury, Skiles is looking for some balance off the bench, where Mike Dunleavy could use Ersan’s scoring help.

But if this is an attempt at balance by Skiles, it’s being lost brick by brick with a starting lineup that isn’t supposed to shoot well because they never have.   The  tip-off five needs a shooter, and Ilyasova’s shot is coming back around to where it was last season.

So the obvious answer is to move Ilyasova back into the starting lineup and see if the Bucks can ween themselves off their dependency on Ellis, who shoots too much for the team’s good — but will keep on shooting unless there is a reliable alternative on the court.   Right now, there’s just no such alternative in the Bucks starting 5, and the Bucks might as well make some effort to get a payoff out of the $7.9 million a year investment they made in Ersan.

A Bucks-Celtics note:  Skiles has played Ilyasova starters’ minutes (29.4 per game) in the four games against the Celtics, three of them victories.  Good matchups for Ersan?  Or a trend?  We shall see.  

Thieves:  Brandon Jennings trails only Chris Paul and Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley in steals per game.  The Bucks continue to be a Top 5 team in forcing turnovers while being 6th in the league at not turning the ball over.  They’re getting two more possessions per game than their opponents.

Larry!  Larry!:  Larry Sanders is leading the NBA in blocked shots per game (3.1) and is No. 1 in defensive rating, a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions that a player is on the floor.   Larry’s 93.4 points allowed per 100 is one point better than Tim Duncan’s and 1.3 better than Pacers center Roy Hibbert.

Ray in Miami:  There’s still mucho love for Ray Allen in Milwaukee, but they surely like him more in Miami these days.   Ray’s staking his claim to “The Best Shooter in Basketball” crown, leading all guards and forwards in Effective Shooting percentage (eFG%).  Ray’s  a 61 percent shooter, behind only Knicks center Tyson Chandler.   Ray’s the only non- center in the top 5.

Lebron James, meanwhile, is a surprising 6th in the NBA with a 58.1% effective shooting, as the MVP is having a career shooting year inside and outside the 3-point arc.   The extra room and better spacing James gets with Ray on the floor is certainly partly responsible for this — as are the added offensive smarts a team gets with Ray — but most of the credit goes to James himself.  He’s playing more post-up than in the past, he’s hitting his threes and his shot selection is the best its ever been.

James is also having a career rebounding year, grabbing 8.5 boards per game.

The Chris Kaman conspiracy: Are the Bucks in the game?

No Andrew Bogut until April at the earliest, highly speculative and tenuous playoff hopes, a Bogut-less Bucks fan base that needs those playoff hopes, no space under the salary cap next season and most of the necessary roster ingredients for a trade.

Stir it all together and you’ve got motive and opportunity for the Bucks to be party to a trade for veteran center Chris Kaman, who’s been publicly placed on the trading block by the New Orleans Hornets.   The Hornets reportedly want “draft picks, cap space and a young player” for the 29-year-old former All-Star (2010) and his expiring $14 million contract.  The Celtics have already declined.

The Bucks have young players, draft picks and the expiring contracts of Ersan Ilyasova and Carlos Delfino, not enough to make the trade.  (See Bucks salaries at Shamsports.com). But Stephen Jackson’s contract could get them there, if the Hornets are willing to take on Jack’s $10 million salary next season.  Add Ilyasova, draft picks and/or the developing Darington Hobson, Larry Sanders et. al., and a trade could work.

The Hornets could do a lot worse.  Ilyasova’s become one of the better rebounding forwards in the league and would be a good addition to the Hornets undersized front court, led by Emeka Okafor.  It’s no secret that, while Ersan is a key member of the Bucks core, Bucks management hasn’t been willing to trust him with starting PF minutes.  For all the good Ersan does on the court, at the end of the day he’s still standing in the way of Jon Leuer‘s development.  Acquiring Kaman helps solve the Bucks defensive rebounding problems (yes, it’s still a problem) in the short term, and clears minutes for Leuer.

So while the Bucks are giving up the better rebounder (currently) and defender in Ilyasova, they would shore up the center position while clearing $14 million in cap space next season.  And Jackson?   The Hornets would be well under the cap next summer standing pat, and adding Jackson would still leave them Room.  They’d only have to pay Jack a year (or less if they trade him).  And, as the Bucks have discovered this season, Jack’s a good guy to have around in spite of all the angry yapping.

So why don’t the Bucks keep him?  Delfino and Mike Dunleavy, jr. play more or less the same position as Jack, and Luc Mbah a Moute needs small forward/guard minutes, too (locking down on Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Lebron James, Danny Granger, Carmelo Anthony, to name a few).  Jack’s fairly expendable, and the Bucks play just fine without him.

Kaman fits in well in the Bucks scheme, and he’s a more reliable offensive player than Bogut.  Kaman helps get the Bucks to the post-season, where the Bucks would have Bogues, too (in theory) and a formidable white behemoth front court.

So would the NBA-owned Hornets sting on this trade?   With the league office involved, it’s not clear that the Bucks have the right expiring contracts for a trade, but there are a lot worse contracts out there than Jackson’s (Drew Gooden’s comes to mind).  A trade would likely depend on the young players, whether the Hornets want to keep Ilyasova, and the value of the draft picks involved.

It also depends on Bucks GM John Hammond, never one to stand pat or worry about stability or player development.

Of course, it’s also likely that I’m just talking myself into it so I can post crazy Chris Kaman photos.

When failing to put a team on the court kills your season

Before the Bucks headed West two weeks ago for a five game road trip, we looked at the league leader boards, some advanced stats and other basketball geek fodder, and found some good things to write about after a small sample.

Two weeks later, there’s little good to write about, as nearly every Buck but an improved Brandon Jennings has either been injured or inconsistent or worse.  The Bucks’ vaunted Top 5 defense has gone to pot and now rates 16th, allowing one point more than the league average of 102.6 points per 100 possessions The Bucks, a team notoriously good at protecting the defensive glass, now ranks near the bottom with a 70.8% defensive rebounding rate.

Bucks center Andrew Bogut has not played well or even rebounded up to his standards (15.5% rebound rate, AB?) and, well, now he’s not playing at all after suffering a concussion against the Pistons on Thursday.  Carlos Delfino and Stephen Jackson have played well in spots.  In some stretches, they’ve been horrendous.

Remember when this team was good?  Remember when Scott Skiles was good?   Some even considered him “brilliant but evil.”

That was long ago, in another time and place and galaxy, in that long-ago age of Chicago Bulls basketball that didn’t include Derrick Rose.

For the 4-and-7 Bucks,”when we were good” was less than two years ago.   There’s not a blogger in the Bucks-o-sphere who can capture the essence of all that’s gone wrong since then.   As constructed, the Milwaukee Bucks are either a mess waiting for an upsurge remniscent of 2010 …

Or they’re just a mess that, for the second year in a row, was not ready to begin the season.

A wise man recently said:  “Waiting for Bogut has become like Waiting for Godot.”

Note:  The Bucks have played the 22nd toughest, or 9th easiest schedule in the league.  This was not the part of the schedule where they could afford to go 4-and-7.

Gooden time: On the road in the west without Andrew Bogut, Bucks need their “Big Zero” like never before

Bucks GM John Hammond’s $6 million man will get another chance to prove his worth in Sacramento tonight, as center Andrew Bogut has not yet returned to the team.   Bogut left for “personal reasons” Tuesday in Utah.

UPDATE: As of today (Thursday pregame), Bogut was still gone and the Kings have fired coach Paul Westphal.

So it’s up to the much-maligned Drew Gooden, “the Big Zero,” the man who has seemed in a world of his own as a Buck, to establish a paint presence against Chucky Hayes and the Kings young frontcourt of J.J. Hickson, Jason Thompson and, yep – he’s back from another temper tantrum and fight with the now departed Westphal – DeMarcus Cousins.

These are matches made in heaven for Gooden.  There are no DeAndre Jordans or Blake Griffins on the Kings roster (those two nightmares await in L.A. Friday). The Kings are big and slow and like to throw their weight around, just like Drew.  Pigs in slop?  Something like that.  This will be a rugged game in the paint.

It’s not Gooden’s modus operandii, but he may want to help mind offensive opportunities for his fellow big men, Ersan Ilyasova and Jon Leuer.  Ilyasova started with Gooden in Utah and shot just 1 for 8 in the Bucks’ 71-point offensive meltdown.  Leuer shot 1 for 4.

The Bucks need scoring from their big forwards, no doubt about that, with ill-shooting Brandon Jennings and Stephen Jackson manning most of the perimeter minutes.  Ilyasova, in particular, is due for a good game, and he’ll start on ex-Cav Hickson, with whom he’s fairly well matched and acquainted.  It should be a battle.

But what I’m looking forward to the most is a Leuer vs. Cousins matchup off the bench.  The Bucks will need Leuer to score, and Cousins is too slow-footed to guard the Bucks rookie.  Cousins may be too big for Leuer, but Cousins is susceptible to offensive fouls, frustration, temper tantrums and other drama.

The last time the Bucks were in Sacramento, Cousins committed four offensive charges against Ilyasova and Bogut, fouled out, threw a fit at the refs, and the Bucks prevailed with a strong 4th quarter.

I can’t really think of any two young players who are such polar opposites as these two.  Leuer, the cool, clever, good shooting, in control and fully developed 4-year college player vs. the raw, immature, undeveloped, out-of-control but talented Cousins.    Leuer vs. Cousins:  Book it, this should be fun to watch.

Kings PF/C Jason Thompson is also a handful off the bench.  Bucks shot-blocker Larry Sanders will get his minutes, and plenty of opportunity to wreak havoc above the rim.  Larry is his name.

TEAM TRAINER TEDIUM:  Mike Dunleavy, Jr., is still out with a groin injury and not with the team.  Luc Mbah a Moute is not expected to play due to soreness in his knee.  Beno Udrih is day-to-day with the mashed shoulder he suffered in a collision with Andre Miller on Monday.  Rookie Tobias Harris has not practiced.  Darington Hobson has been recalled from the D-League and will probably play tonight.  Aren’t Bucks injury reports boring?  You bet.

JOHN SALMONS:   The Kings are all about their young guns, Marcus Thornton, Tyreke Evans and Jimmer Fredette, but the old fish is getting his minutes starting at small forward.  Salmons’ defense is just as solid as ever and will likely guard Jackson, who, by transitive property of the 3-team trade, was the guy he was traded for.  Jimmer and Beno, Tobias Harris and Shaun Livingston are the other pieces in this trade, which should make tonight’s game, in the very least, interesting.

Salmons has started all seven games for the Kings and had a workmanlike game playing 30 minutes guarding Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest in a Kings win.  Against the Knicks, he was the best King on the floor during a long stretch in the first half, though he had his hands full guarding Carmelo Anthony.

And yes – Salmons is still shooting like crap (34%), though he’s hit a good percentage of his threes (38%), better than the 32% Jimmer’s shooting.

Sure, I’ll be watching Salmons because he’s not Fredette or Stephen Jackson, but also because GM Hammond gave up on him far too soon.  The revolving door that is the Bucks backcourt with Jennings is a sign that Hammond probably has ADD.

STATS CHECK:   The Bucks remain 2nd in the league in team defense giving up just 95.2 pts per 100 possessions, tied with the Bulls behind Denver.  The Bucks are 2nd in forcing turnovers (17.5% turnover rate) and 2nd in defensive field goal percentage, holding opponents to a woeful 44.4% effective shooting.  (Effective shooting counts one made shot for a made field goal and 1.5 made shots for three-pointers.)

But they’ve plunged to 28th in the NBA in team offense,  scoring only 96.5 points per 100 possessions, causing fans throughout Bucksland to wonder whether this is what we get with Jennings at the point.  There may be limits to how much the Bucks can improve from here.  Even baby steps would be welcome, given the strength of the defense.

With that in mind, most troubling is the Bucks defensive rebounding, which has fallen to 71%.  They are not protecting their defensive backboard very well at all, despite a reputation as one of the better rebounding teams in the league.

The Bucks rank 24th in controlling the defensive glass, which obviously undermines the great on-the-ball shot defense they’re playing.  This gets more and more surprising with each game it continues.

Not surprising is the jumper-chucking Bucks’ inability to the get to the line.  They’re dead last in Free-Throws-Field-Goal percentage — only 16.4% of their shots have been free throws.

Defensively, the Bucks are nearly opposite:  They don’t allow teams to shoot well but they foul a lot.  26% of Bucks opponents’ shots have been free throws.  Partial blame for this goes to Kevin Love and the T-Wolves loving referees.